Edwin Michael
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine (St. Mary's campus), Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1 PG, UK

Robert C. Spear
Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley CA

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About this Book

Modelling parasite transmission has made enormous strides since the seminal models of Ross for describing malaria transmission developed during the early 1900s. McDonald’s use of the early malaria models to show that killing adult mosquitoes would be particularly effective in reducing infection transmission was a major advance in demonstrating the usefulness of theoretical analysis and population dynamics modelling in particular for guiding parasite control programmes, and since then parasite transmission models have also been used to guide the onchocerciasis control programme in Africa, as well as for investigating best strategies for controlling a host of other parasites, including tuberculosis, trachoma and lately helminth infections, such as schistosomiasis and filariasis. The importance of this work is highlighted by greater understanding of threshold phenomena in transmission dynamics leading to the concept that natural “breakpoints” occur below which parasite systems will go extinct to the roles that worm mating behaviour and infection aggregation can play in both helminth transmission and control. The emerging trend from this work is thus the increasing use of understanding parasite transmission dynamics via the construction and analysis of mathematical models for use in guiding the development of informed parasite control strategies, so much so that this twin objective, viz improving understanding of parasite transmission dynamics and applying models to guide parasite control, has almost become a de facto goal of most recent work in parasite transmission modelling. We have organized the material in the book into two major sections, the first presenting the state of the art in models aimed at capturing complex or detailed aspects of transmission dynamics beginning with a review of the evolution of modelling malaria transmission. Part II of the book serves to highlight the current use of transmission models in the planning, monitoring and evaluation of parasite control programmes.

Table of Contents

PART 1. MODELLING PARASITE TRANSMISSION

1. Progress in Modelling Malaria Transmission
David L. Smith and Nick Ruktanonchai

2. Vector Transmission Heterogeneity and the Population Dynamics and Control of Lymphatic Filariasis
Edwin Michael and Manoj Gambhir

3. Modelling Multi‑Species Parasite Transmission
Andrea Pugliese

4. Metapopulation Models in Tick‑Borne Disease Transmission Modelling
Holly Gaff and Elsa Schaefer

5. Modelling Stochastic Transmission Processes in Helminth Infections
Stephen J. Cornell

6. Modelling Environmentally‑Mediated Infectious Diseases of Humans: Transmission Dynamics 
of Schistosomiasis in China
Justin Remais

PART 2. APPLICATION OF MODELS TO PARASITE CONTROL

7. Parameter Estimation and Site‑Specific Calibration of Disease Transmission Models
Robert C. Spear and A. Hubbard

8. Modelling Malaria Population Structure and Its Implications for Control
Caroline O. Buckee and Sunetra Gupta

9. Mathematical Modelling of the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis
Peter J. White and Geoff P. Garnett

10. Modelling Trachoma for Control Programmes
Manoj Gambhir, María‑Gloria Basáñez, Isobel M. Blake and Nicholas C. Grassly

11. Transmission Models and Management of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination
Edwin Michael and Manoj Gambhir

12. Disease Transmission Models for Public Health Decision‑Making: Designing Intervention 
Strategies for Schistosoma japonicum
Edmund Y.W. Seto and Elizabeth J. Carlton

EPILOGUE

13. Modelling Climate Change and Malaria Transmission
Paul E. Parham and Edwin Michael

14. Modelling the Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi: The Need for an Integrated Genetic 
Epidemiological and Population Genomics Approach
Michel Tibayrenc